Spain vs Portugal : Nations League Final Predictions

Portugal vs Spain Nations League final predictions, team news and lineups for Sunday’s showdown at Allianz Arena. Expert betting tips and analysis.

The stage is set for an epic Iberian showdown as Portugal vs Spain clash in the UEFA Nations League final on Sunday, June 8, 2025, at Munich’s Allianz Arena. Both nations are seeking to become the first team to win the prestigious tournament twice, with Spain defending their 2023 crown against Portugal, who lifted the inaugural trophy in 2019.

Spain vs Portugal: Match Details and Key Information

The Nations League final kicks off at 8 PM local time (3 PM ET) in Munich, with Switzerland’s Sandro Schärer officiating this crucial encounter. Spain enter as favorites at 17/20 odds, while Portugal are priced at 29/10, reflecting La Roja’s status as both European champions and defending Nations League holders.

This mouth-watering fixture features a compelling narrative between football’s past and future – Portugal’s legendary Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored his 137th international goal in the semifinal victory over Germany, facing Spain’s 17-year-old sensation Lamine Yamal.

Team News and Injury Updates

Portugal Team News

Roberto Martínez has a fully fit squad at his disposal, with all key players available for selection. Vitinha is expected to return to the starting eleven after his impressive substitute appearance against Germany, likely replacing Ruben Neves in central midfield. Francisco Conceição is pushing for a start after his crucial equalizing goal in the semifinal.

The Portuguese manager remains confident about his team’s chances, stating: “I think we are ready to win the final. If tomorrow we show the same dedication, fight and resilience, we are ready to win the final”.

Spain Team News

Luis de la Fuente has indicated minimal changes to his lineup following the thrilling 5-4 semifinal victory over France. The Spanish coach was forthright in his assessment: “There’s not a lot I have to change for Sunday”.

Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, and Pedri are all fit and available, while Fabián Ruiz, fresh from PSG’s Champions League triumph, could start after featuring for 25 minutes in the semifinal. The absence of Ballon d’Or winner Rodri due to knee injury remains Spain’s only significant concern.

Spain vs Portugal: Predicted Lineups

Portugal Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Diogo Costa; Nelson Semedo, Rúben Dias, Gonçalo Inácio, Nuno Mendes; Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva; Francisco Conceição, Cristiano Ronaldo, Pedro Neto

Spain Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Unai Simón; Pedro Porro, Robin Le Normand, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella; Pedri, Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino; Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzábal, Nico Williams

Head-to-Head Record and Recent Form

The historical record heavily favors Spain in this rivalry, with La Roja winning 17 of 40 previous encounters compared to Portugal’s six victories2. Spain’s dominance is even more pronounced in recent years – Portugal haven’t beaten Spain since a 4-0 friendly victory in 2010.

Spain’s Recent Form: Unbeaten in their last 19 international matches, with their previous defeat coming against Colombia in March 2024. They’ve scored 25 goals in their last 10 encounters and remain unbeaten in their last 13 Nations League games.

Portugal’s Recent Form: Won their last two Nations League matches, scoring seven goals in these victories. Their previous defeat came against Denmark 1-0 in the group stage.

Expert Predictions and Betting Analysis

Match Outcome Predictions

Most experts favor Spain to win the Nations League final, with the Opta Supercomputer giving La Roja a 50.1% chance of victory within 90 minutes. Spain’s recent tournament pedigree and unbeaten streak make them the logical favorites, despite Portugal’s attacking threats.

Key Betting Markets:

• Spain to win: 1.85 odds

• Under 2.5 goals: 2.10 odds

• Spain to lead at half-time: 2.40 odds

Goals and Scoring Predictions

Despite Spain’s recent high-scoring matches, including the 5-4 thriller against France, historical data suggests a low-scoring affair. Five of the last six meetings between these nations have produced two goals or fewer. The tactical importance of this final may lead both teams to adopt more cautious approaches.

However, some analysts favor over 2.5 goals at -164 odds, citing both teams’ recent scoring form – Spain have netted 2+ goals in seven of their last eight games, while Portugal achieved this in six of nine matches.

Key Players to Watch

Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)

The 40-year-old legend has scored seven goals in this Nations League campaign and remains Portugal’s primary attacking threat. His experience in major finals could prove decisive, especially given his penalty-taking responsibilities.

Lamine Yamal (Spain)

At just 17, Yamal has emerged as Spain’s breakout star, scoring twice in the semifinal against France. His pace and creativity on the right wing pose a constant threat to opposition defenses.

Vitinha (Portugal)

Described as “arguably the best central midfielder in European club football right now,” the PSG star’s return to the starting lineup could provide Portugal with the midfield control needed to compete with Spain’s technical superiority.

Tactical Analysis and Match Prediction

Spain’s possession-based approach and midfield dominance through Pedri and Zubimendi should control the game’s tempo. However, their defensive vulnerabilities, evident when conceding four goals to France, present opportunities for Portugal’s counter-attacking style.

Portugal’s best chance lies in exploiting Spain’s defensive lapses while remaining compact and organized. The experience of players like Rúben Dias and Bruno Fernandes in high-pressure situations could prove crucial.

Final Prediction: Spain 2-1 Portugal

The match promises to be decided by fine margins, with extra time and penalties potentially required1. Spain’s superior tournament experience and current form give them the edge, but Portugal’s resilience and individual quality ensure this will be a closely contested affair.

Conclusion

Sunday’s Nations League final between Portugal and Spain represents more than just a trophy match – it’s a clash between football generations and tactical philosophies. While Spain enter as favorites based on their recent success and unbeaten run, Portugal possess the experience and individual brilliance to cause an upset.

The winner will make history as the first nation to claim the Nations League twice, adding another chapter to this storied Iberian rivalry. Don’t miss what promises to be a captivating encounter at Munich’s Allianz Arena.

What are your predictions for Portugal vs Spain? Share your thoughts in the comments below and let us know who you think will lift the Nations League trophy!